Today's Playbook - Blue Line Morning Express
Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 3104, down 5.00

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks continue their healthy consolidation and we have not seen a fresh record high in 72 whole hours, but it is Friday and Chinese President Xi is doing his part saying he wants to work towards an interim Phase One trade deal. Despite Xis comments, cautious optimism and an invitation for high-level U.S delegates to visit Beijing for talks the market still faces two overarching questions. Will President Trump sign the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and will tariffs on December 15th get delayed?Bill Baruch joined BNN Bloombergs Market Close yesterday to discuss this narrative. In fact, this is such an important topic, they asked the same question three times . . . in a row!

The odds of a Fed cut in December have completely dissipated and there is now a 5% probability they actually hike rates. Although we do not expect the Fed to hike in December, the odds have shifted gears from a cut to a hike and this could prove to be an inflection point if the data starts beating expectations. Todays economic calendar brings Flash PMIs. It certainly was not good in Europe, but Manufacturing from all three (France, Germany and the Eurozone read) came in better than expected. However, the Services mark missed. U.S Flash PMIs are due at 8:45 am CT and Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT.

Technicals:Major three-star supports held very well through the week at 3095.50-3099 in the S&P and 8250-8265.50 in the NQ. We were admittingly surprised to see strong volume intermittently slice through these levels before stabilizing. These supports aligned with gaps from last Thursday and typically such a move through a gap struggles to stabilize that quickly and we always note that traders must be cautious upon such. However, backing away from the forest to see the trees, the move in and of itself exudes the ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.

Crude Oil (January)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 58.58, up 1.57

Fundamentals:Crude Oil stacked back to back 3% gains and settled at the highest levels since September 16th, which was Monday after the attacks on Saudi Arabias largest oil facility. An upbeat U.S and China trade narrative, speculation of more stringent compliance among OPEC+ members to not surpass their quotas and hopes that economic data is turning a corner have all fueled Crude higher. However, one of the most underestimated factors is simply the bulls becoming under-positioned and the bears becoming over-positioned relative to recent years and ultimately as positioning reverted to the mean after a failure to go lower it brought a tailwind to the tape. We have held a Neutral Bias but are now getting excited on a value basis at these levels.

Technicals:Price action is holding well at and above our pivot of 58.14-58.17 which consists of our momentum indicator and the previous swing high; out above here the bulls are in the drivers seat. Still, we have key resistance now at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1463.6, down 10.6

Fundamentals:Gold settled yesterday on the lows of the session. Equity markets are proving to be in more of a healthy consolidation rather than a reprieve, the odds of future Fed cuts have completely dissipated and the U.S-China trade narrative continues to have an upbeat feel. All of such are pressuring the metal. U.S Flash PMIs are due at 8:45 am CT and final November Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT. These number will help bring some focus to the metal in the near-term.

Technicals:Gold continues to struggle at first key resistance at 1471.9-1474 but it is holding ground at support at 1462.6-1463.9. As it consolidates at the lowest level since August, we believe patience will be rewarded. There are multiple ways to play Gold at this level, please call Bill Baruch directly at 312-837-3944 to discuss...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results