Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Friday fractionally lower to 1 1/2 cents lower in the front month as losses deepened through the contracts. That closed helped to cement a wk/wk loss, which was 2 1/2 cents. December options expire today. Total export commitments for corn are slowly whittling away on this time last year, now lagging by 45.4% from the same week in 2018. They are just 28% of the USDA export projection, with the average pace at 43% for this week. CFTC reported that as of Tuesday manage money was net short 123,530 contracts, a position which grew by 12,609 positions to the deepest short position since the beginning of October.

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.78 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.83 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.88 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures closed below $9 for the first time since late September for the January contract. The futures finished with a 21 1/4 cent loss for the week. Soybean meal closed lower by $2/ton, with a $8.10 loss on the week. Soybean oil finished Friday 19 points in the black, to push the wk/wk gain to 45 points. Export commitments of soybeans are now 4.8% above last year, even as unshipped sales down 3%. Accumulated exports are up 14% at 26% of the USDA projection. Combined, shipped and unshipped sales are 49% of that projection, with the normal pace at 63%. ARC Mercosul estimates that the Brazilian soybean crop is 77.3% planted, vs. the average of 80.5% and 89.6% last year. Managed money was reported net long by 18,452 contracts, with the long having shrank by 12,598 wk/wk. That was the third consecutive reduction of that long position.

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97, down 4 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $9.11 1/4, down 4 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.25, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.37, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal closed at $299.00, down $2.00

Dec 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.88, up $0.19

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures wheat futures closed Friday mixed, with Chicago showing daily gains of as much as 7 cents in nearby contracts, pushing the futures to gain 12 1/2 cents over the week. MPLS also gained on the week riding into the weekend on a 7 5/8 cent gain train. MPLS, however, did carry a Friday drop of 2 1/2 to 4 cents into the weekend to close the week with a 10 1/2 cent loss. Chicago wheat futures were switched back to a net short position of 2,049 contracts for the managed money as of the latest CFTC report. KC held a larger net short wk/wk by the specs who’ve held the net short position for 47 consecutive weeks. MPLS was shown at 13,988 positions net short for the managed money as of Tuesday. The USDA weekly shipments YTD were 11.705 MMT, 45% of the forecast total (46% avg) and 24% larger yr/yr. HRW occupied a 35.37% share of the total shipments through the week ending 11/22, their accumulated share is 39.36%. HRS wheat accounted for 23.48% of weekly shipments from the update on Friday, their MYTD share is 26.63%. SRW wheat occupied 11.01% of wheat shipments from the report, and 13.03% of the sales.

Dec 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.15 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.24, up 3 cents,

Dec 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.92 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures closed down by $0.65 to $1.92 on Friday, with a wk/wk loss of 42 1/2 cents. Feeder cattle futures dropped $2.70 to $3.32 in the front months, to finish an entire $5.00 lower on the week. The CFTC reported that managed money was still net long for cattle, firming their position wk/wk to 81,549 contracts. Feeder cattle futures were also net long from managed money, with a 1,484 contract growth over last week. Beef in frozen supply were listed at 466.219 million lbs per this afternoon’s Cold Storage report from the USDA. That’s down 9.57% over last October, at a 5-year low. Every month since Jan and Feb of this year have been below last year’s storage numbers. COF report showed that 11.831 million head were on feed as of the first of Nov. October placements were shown at 2.477 million head, a 10.19% bump mo/mo. Marketing were don 0.64%, at 1.875 million head. The 11/21 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 39 cents to $145.47. Friday boxed beef prices were quite lower, Choice boxes fell by $2.29, and select boxes were $2.54 lower. The week saw cash trade in the $116 range, with some as high as $117.50. Dressed cattle are trading at $184.00 in NE. The. The USDA’s weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter through Saturday is 672,000 head, that’s 5,000 head above last week’s pace.

Dec 19 Cattle closed at $118.675, down $0.650,

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $123.850, down $1.200,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $124.175, down $1.600,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.275, down $3.325

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.600, down $3.200

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.100, down $3.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures were mixed on Friday, with Dec and Feb showing gains of as much as 57 cents, while the back months posted losses of 22 to 42 cents. The futures finished $1.97 1/2 in the red through weekly action. The net long position held by managed money decreased to a net position of 6,007 contracts. The USDA Cold Storage data was released; showing frozen pork at an all-time October record of 614.508 million lbs. that’s a which was a 7.64% increase over last year, and 35.17% above the 10 year average for the month. Pork belly supply was 45.920 million lbs reported in storage, highest for October since 1988. The CME Lean Hog Index fell back 4 cents and was at $59.54 for 11/20. The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.60 and goes into the weekend listed at $83.07. Primal cuts finished mostly higher with belly down by $1.77. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/22 was 66 cents lower to $41.91. USDA estimated FI daily hog slaughter is 2.758 million head, which brings the yearly total up to 115.531 million head.

Dec 19 Hogs closed at $61.225, up $0.575,

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $67.650, up $0.200

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $73.700, down $0.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures rebounded triple digits on Friday, with gains of 67 to 84 points. The rally was not enough to offset the earlier losses, and futures go into the weekend 220 points lower wk/wk.The CFTC reporting the net short position for specs did get reduced by 1,166 cotnracts . Upland cotton export commitments are now 66% of the USDA projection (59% avg), with actual shipments 18% of the full-year forecast (16% avg). Weekly running online sales on The Seam through 11/21 were up to 16,413 bales; last week’s total was 18,087 through Thursday. The 11/20 Cotlook A Index was down again for the third straight day, this time a full cent bringing the index to 73.40 cents/lb. The weekly update to the AWP for cotton was reduced 70 points to 56.36 cents per lb.

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 63.42, up 158 points,

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 64.85, up 84 points

May 20 Cotton closed at 65.94, up 80 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 66.81, up 67 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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