“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​8/11/2025

Live Cattle:

Cattle feeders have been having to deal with a positive basis for most of this year. In the feeder market though, the basis has been favorable mostly, exceptionally beneficial at times, and a few weeks where tiger traps were laid and filled.  Now, evidence appears to be mounting that expansion is taking place.  Although fledgling at the moment, with hay production, pasture conditions and lower costs of feed stuffs, it is more likely than not to continue.  Getting in front of expansion is going to be difficult, due to the positive basis. What will exaggerate this situation would be the reopening of the Mexican border.  Were this to materialize before years end, a combination of steady supplies from the south and growing domestic supplies could produce an exponential growth of inventory by this time next year.  The short webinar goes into some detail, but mostly I want you to get thinking about what is down the road as the previously anticipated higher price that cattlemen projected is here.  

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Feeder Cattle:

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The challenge of getting ahead of the curve video.

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Corn:

​Corn was a little higher, but beans were sharply higher on nothing more than the President having stated the China needs beans.  I hope he doesn't say they need corn or beef is too high.  His comments are shock factors to the markets.  ​

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Energy:​

Energy was mixed all day with little having taken place.  Energy is betwixt and between trends with either direction believed credible in suggesting either further inflation or the stagflation having impacted the consumer to a point in which recession may come into the conversation.  ​

Bonds:

​Bonds were sideways for most of the day.  This week is full of government reports that would be anticipated to move the bond market if needed to make adjustments.  Like the oil above, bonds are betwixt and between a trend with either direction believed important as to the direction of the economy.  ​

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